Wednesday, December 23, 2009

WIWFC | The Final Reckoning

I've taken a different approach to the "What I Want For Christmas" series this year, and I hope you've enjoyed having other voices put forward their lists of what they want shoved under DC United's tree for next year. My sincere thanks to the five of you who were brave enough to submit your lists for public consumption.

But now it's my turn. In no particular order, I want...

  1. A new stadium: It was refreshing to see that the other list-makers placed a similar value on a new stadium, though I think its importance may be underestimated. Not only has the continued failure on the stadium front led to dispondent pessimism on the part of the supporters, but I think it's also seriously affecting the mojo of the organization as a whole. This is a club that is used to winning, and the successive setbacks when the opportunity for success seemed to be just around the bend seem to have spread throughout the club. Is it just me, or does there seem to be both a creeping sense of nostalgia for a golden age that has passed and a tendency towards settling for mediocrity? Likewise, the lurking threat of the club being moved has to be deeply upsetting for a club that prides itself on tradition and connection both to its supporters and to the community.
  2. Coherent team play, both in attack and defense: Too often over the last couple of seasons, the United defense has been prone to silly errors, a lack of communication, and a surprising vulnerability to counterattacks and direct play. Some of the blame will fall at the feet of individual defenders and goalkeepers, but it should be apportioned. Our attackers often haven't applied pressure to opponents on the ball, allowing them time and space to pick out passes. Likewise, our midfield was often too slow or too poorly positioned to cut out attacking play. On the other side of the ball, I had huge frustrations with our lack of off the ball movement, balls played quickly into space, and the expectation placed on individuals that they would simply beat a defender or hit a pass that would magically split defenses to somehow set up immobile teammates. This often translated into slow and pointless offensive play.
  3. A quality goalkeeper: Yes, we are carrying three goalkeepers at the moment, but do you trust any of them as the long-term starter right now? Hamid, for all of his promise, is still a teenager. Kocic never showed the confidence or decision-making ability that would allow me to trust him. And while Wicks showed admirable confidence and a willingness to take command of his defense, my abiding memories of his 2009 are misjudgements, blank stares after one-on-ones were slotted past his hulking, statue-like form, and losing the plot mentally, be it the infamous stamp on Montero, screaming at defenders, or mindlessly charging out for balls that were never there to be won.
  4. A coach who can read the game & take advantage strengths and weaknesses: Though he often prepared the team well for a match, Soehn had a disturbing inability to react to changes in the match, most often highlighted when a tactical shift by the opposition at the half created problems that Soehn could not adjust to. Indeed, he rarely seemed able to make changes during the match that forced the opponent to make their own adjustments. This led to a frustrating number of ties when the team had been in a winning position. It also probably had something to do with his increasing tendency to sit on one-goal leads and/or make pre-halftime substitutions, a desperate move by any measure and particularly indicative of a coach that sees no way to make a change beyond swapping the actual players at his disposal.
  5. A defensive organizer: Jakovic and, to a lesser extent, James are both promising young central defenders. Though Jakovic brings polish to James' bruising athleticism, both are the types of defenders you would want to pair with a deeper-lying defensive leader. Though I could see having a better keeper provide some of this quality, my preference would be to bring in a savvy veteran to pair with Jakovic, providing cover not only for Jakovic's libero tendencies and ability to anticipate direct balls from the opposition, but also for either the inexperienced (and attacking) Wallace or the substandard Burch at left back. Where does this leave James? As much-needed cover for now. Ideally, I'd see Jakovic using his ball-skills and reading of the game to develop into a sweeper-libero, but I suspect that requires a more experienced cast, comfortable in their roles and with each other, to be manning the defense along with him.
Of course, that's not all I'd wish for, merely the biggest issues I see with the team as it exists today. Wrapped up in that "as it exists today" caveat is the knowledge that all of the pieces currently assembled may not be on hand when pre-season rolls around. Are the Brazilians on their way out? Does Gomez have a future in DC? How much will our speedy South African attackers be able to contribute next year and in what positions? Where will Wallace play? Can Szetela live up to his promise? How long can Moreno keep going? Can Pontius get on the scoresheet with regularity?

Too many questions, and not enough wishes. But such is the nature of all but the most elite of clubs, particularly under the oppressive thumb of MLS parity.

DCU|FM Challenge, Part VI - Mid Season Assessment

Though we're just past the midway mark of the 2009 season in my DCU|FM Challenge, I thought the All Star Break would be an appropriate time to take a little breather and assess how things are going. To start though, I wanted to check in on the players I let go...

* Milos Kocic still has yet to latch on with another team after being released in pre-season, which is a little shocking because he's not too shabby.
* Ange N'Silu is also as yet unattached, though he has a lower division French team sniffing around.
* Ty Shipalane hasn't been picked up, which doesn't surprise me as he's terrible (and, for some reason, a central midfielder) in the game.
* Marc Burch has found his level with Real Maryland, where he joins the two younger Carroll brothers. He's getting middling ratings and has one goal and one assist in thirteen appearances.
* Josh Wicks hasn't latched on anywhere, but is getting serious interest from German lower-division outfits, presumably because he holds a German passport by virtue of being born there.
* Lawson Vaughn has picked up a handful of cup and substitute appearances for a terrible Houston side, with little to show for his efforts.
* Luciano Emilio is having modest success in KC, where he's netted five times and tacked on two assists in fifteen appearances. Given how well Camara's been playing, and that Camara pulls about a fifth of Emilio's salary, I'm hardly broken up about this. It also looks like he's worried that they're lining up a replacement for him and wants to leave the club.
* Christian Gomez has made a handful of appearances since being traded to KC and seems to be settling well, notching a goal, an assist, and a man of the match award. He and Conrad seem to get on pretty well.
* Ely Allen hasn't been picked up and nobody is showing any interest.
* Greg Janicki recently landed with Montreal and has laid on one assist in the three matches he's played for them.
* Avery John is still unattached, but is getting some looks from the German lower divisions.
* Julius James was only dropped recently and has yet to land anywhere.
Looking at this list makes me realize just how drastic the roster surgery I engaged in has been. I'm thinking that when I conclude this first "challenge" I should go back and attempt to do the season with a more "real-life" roster.

And now for a look at the league. First, the table thus far...


Team stats, where you'll note our offensive success, but lack of anything resembling an effective defense...


And league player stats, where Henri Camara's importance (and Dema's temper issues ;-) becomes evident...


As far as the team goes, our leaders thus far are...
Goals: Camara (14), Moreno (6), Jacobson/Quaranta (3)
Assists: Camara (8), Rogers (6), Quaranta (4)
Average Rating: Camara (7.41), Jacobson (7.33), Rogers (7.14)
The lowest ratings go to: Myers (6.65), Jakovic (6.71), Vavá (6.71)

Myers and Vavá don't worry me because they've only had a couple of appearances each, generally as subs, and have just joined the team. Jakovic is a bigger worry. He generally gets above average ratings, but the problem is that he's had a few really wretched outings as well that have dragged his average down.

The upshot? I'm going to give Mendes a solid run in the team and see if a spell on the bench does anything for Jakovic's consistency. I've got some time before the transfer window closes, so if Mendes is similarly lame, I'm going to have to do a bit more shopping. The question then will be, does Jakovic make way, or does Fred?

Let's break down the team.

Up top, our best quartet is Camara as the lone striker, Rogers on the left wing, Quaranta on the right, and Moreno sitting in the #10 role. I'm a little disappointed that Lopez hasn't contributed as much as I thought he would, though this is probably down more to Camara and Rogers conspiring to keep him out of the starting eleven. Pontius has shown signs up top and on the right wing, but again we have the problem with limited appearances. Vavá will probably supplant Moreno in the #10 spot as the season wears on.

And that brings us to Fred. His contract is running out at the end of the season, he hasn't been playing particularly well, a handful of Brazilian teams are showing interest, and I'm leaning towards a combination of Lopez and Wallace for cover on the left wing. I'm most likely going to entertain offers for his services if any are forthcoming.

In the holding roles, I'm pretty comfortable with my depth and eager to see what impact Sosa brings to the table alongside Szetela in a deep playmaking role. Simms, Olsen, and Jacobson provide solid cover, with Olsen also able to do spot duty in attacking midfield as well.

At the back, I've still got some questions, as I alluded to above. Namoff has been steady, if unspectacular, on the right, meaning that McTavish hasn't seen much time as his understudy. Boswell has been solid in the middle, as has Mendes in limited minutes. You've already heard about my troubles with Jakovic, and the left is still a little up in the air.

Wallace has been picking up the most minutes there, though his numbers aren't great, and he seems more comfortable in midfield. Myers may have the bigger upside. Habarugira is a mystery. He can play pretty much anywhere at the back and in midfield, though my coaches say he's best as a center back. Which is worrying because he's terrible in the air and isn't a great marker or tackler. He's played well the handful of times he's featured, and I expect the late-summer congestion will give him a chance to shine.

Keeper is a bit of a mixed bag. I've announced that Shuttleworth can go on loan, and a dozen PDL and USL2 sides are interested, but nobody's made a move yet. Gonzalez, having long term potential at 26, was penciled in as the starter, and has been reasonable, if not great. A couple of really awful outings led me to bench him in favor of the more experienced Cavallero, he of the 35 caps for Argentina to match his 35 years of age, and he's been a steadier hand. I'm not entirely satisfied in this department, but it's not enough to prompt a summer spending spree. That doesn't mean I won't keep an eye open though.

Looking at the contract situation, I made some moves to extend contracts, signing Olsen to a one year extension at half the wages he was making (he claims "love for the club," and who am I to doubt him?), locking in McTavish on a long-term deal for the current chump change he's pulling, extending Quaranta's contract through 2012 and giving him a bigger raise than he was asking for, and handing Namoff a one-year extension at a slightly lower salary.

That leaves Shuttleworth (3rd string keeper) and DiRaimondo (on loan in Richmond) expiring on the Dev roster, along with the injured and base-pay pulling Khumalo on the senior. We also have a quartet of highly paid guys that I'm not quite ready to commit to long-term. Moreno will probably get a new deal at a reduced rate, though at 35, he's a risk. I'm going to watch how he handles the rest of the season. Lopez is almost as old, and I'll be employing the same policy. Fred is teetering on the brink of a transfer, so we probably won't need to worry about renegotiating his contract. Finally, Simms has been a solid contributor, but he's asking for Moreno-type money, and I'm not even sure he'll continue to be a starter, so I'm going to keep an eye on his situation and consider a trade if he won't settle for the money I feel he's worth.

Let's close with the friendly I scheduled in advance of the All Star game...

(F) San Luis: (W 2-1) We came out looking to control possession but found ourselves under increasing pressure from their counters, finally resulting in a goal for them after some sloppy defensive play in the middle. I went a bit longer without making changes, but we weren't creating anything, so I let slip the dogs of war...with immediate results. Quaranta hit a gorgeous ball from his own half that split the defense and just skipped past the last defender in the rain. Camara charged onto it, had a heavy first touch, and the keeper, a San Luis defender, and Camara all collided and went down in a heap. The ball rolled free and Camara bounced up to equalize. Minutes later, Quaranta ended one of his many first half runs with a wicked cross that resulted in an own goal, though Camara was lurking to put it home if the defender hadn't made contact first. After that we settled down and played possession, making wholesale changes on the hour mark. They had a couple of half-chances, but we had a handful of good ones, only for Camara to be wasteful or Lopez to be too tentative. Late in the match...


Story of Fred's life, eh? Time to put him on the transfer block?


---

Think I'm making a mess of this? Grab a copy of Football Manager 2010and have a go yourself. Then write it up and post it to your own blog or send me a copy and I might post it here on FBF...

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

WIWFC | Rob's List

And here's the fifth and final reader contribution from Rob (also @eatingbark on the twitters)...

Rob's What I Want For Christmas List

I'd really like one thing: a long-term plan, focused on building a stable, long-term future for the team. Ideally, it encompasses just about everything: coach, stadium, players. No more of this "we just need one or two more pieces and we'll win everything this year" nonsense; even if it's correctly calculated, it'll blow up in a year, and you're back where you started.

The best summation of this strategy that I've seen is this Peter Wilt article at Pitch Invasion. The goal, roughly paraphrased, is to nurture and develop a core of players that can stay together for 4-6 years. This core will be supplemented by talented young players who will eventually graduate out of MLS to better-paying jobs in tougher leagues overseas, as well as older and experienced players who offer direction to the younger core. Namoff, Moreno, and Simms will be the latter next year (as would Arnaud, with my fantasy draft). Pontius and Jakovic (and Wallace, though I'm less certain about that) are probably the former.

The wishes:
1. Three young players and one savvy vet: Will Johnson (M) (51,000), Davy Arnaud (M/F) (220,000), Nathan Sturgis (M/D) (100,000), Kevin Alston (D) (55,000). I don't think we could realistically trade for them (they're worth more than they cost, which is an expensive commodity in a salary-capped league), but we could probably afford the salaries (dump Emilio and Fred, and it's relatively easy; in fact, you've probably still got room for a new goalkeeper, which would also be great), so it's not as unrealistic as a list of washed-up Euro talent or even a selection from the All-Star list. Really, though, it's arbitrary; the point isn't the names, but the principle of picking up relatively young, relatively cheap talent, which is good enough to start, but not so good that all of it will leave and/or need massive raises in a couple seasons.

2. Castillo and Szetela to flourish under the new coach, whoever he is.

3. Drafting well. One or two impact players, one or two successful long term projects.

4. Continued progress from last season's rookies, including Wallace to left back successfully.

5. A stadium on the Metro, whether in Maryland, Virginia, or the District.

I wouldn't mind replacing Wicks, and obviously a quality coach figures in there as well, but I'm out of wishes...

Here's how I'd line this prospective team up, in 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2

4-2-3-1
GK: Wicks
LB: Wallace
CB: Jakovic
CB: James/Sturgis
RB: Namoff
CM: Simms
CM: Szetela
ALM: Castillo
ACM: Quaranta
ARM: Johnson
ST: Arnaud/Pontius

4-4-2
LM: Castillo
CM: Simms
CM: Szetela
RM: Johnson
ST: Quaranta
ST: Arnaud/Pontius

The drafting wish brings up an interesting point. Since we're likely to be shedding a bunch of salary this off-season, it would be a nice year to have a solid draft position. Unfortunately, as best I can make out, we don't.

Climbing the Ladder has us with one pick each in the first, third, and fourth rounds. Plus, we owe LA a conditional pick for Wicks. Since Wicks did become our starting keeper last year, I'm guessing we would have been giving up our second-rounder if we hadn't already traded it away for Gomez. Does that mean we lose our third-rounder? Tough to draft well with the 7th and 55th picks overall, even in what appears to be a deep draft class.

That said, I think we do have a solid core of guys in their early to mid twenties already. Can it be augmented? Certainly. I'll probably touch on that in my own WIWFC post tomorrow. But I don't see that we're in a solid position to be trading for the types of players Rob outlined above. We have few draft picks to trade, and there's not much interest in the players we'd be willing to offload. Therefore, we'd either have to give up promising youngsters or hunt for talent abroad.

I wonder if the FO is paying attention to some of the young American talent out of contract overseas?