United Autopsy 2009 | Part V: Filling in the Gaps

At long last, we come to the end of our autopsy. The corpse is laid out on the table before us, and we can step back and make an overall assessment, not just of cause of death, but of what needs to change if we don't want to sit here next fall looking at a similar mess. We'll do this in two parts. Part I will review what we've got to work with, and Part II will identify the questions we need to answer this offseason in order to flesh out the roster.


Now...

For simplicity's sake, I'm going to assume that whoever we bring in to helm the team will be going with four at the back. Also, there are looming questions about who the FO is going to resign, since pretty much all of the squad is coming up on contract renewals. Nevertheless...

Goalkeeper: Wicks is the returning starter, but he'll be injured for the start of next season, and I, for one, am not convinced he should be handed the starting job. In fact, no less an authority than the Goffblog has also expressed doubts about his future with the team. That leaves us hunting for a number one, because Kocic sure as hell isn't ready (if he ever will be), and I doubt we'll put our fate in the hands of a 19-year old, no matter how big or sure the hands.

Defenders: A back line of Wallace, Jakovic, James, and Namoff doesn't look too shabby, though (1) we don't know if Wallace's long-term future is in defense or midfield, and (2) James is more potential than finished product at this point. Assuming that John and Janicki are as good as gone and no losses to the expansion draft, we've got reasonable backups on the flanks in Vaughn (excellent) and Burch (could be better), but precious little depth in the middle. Also, there's the troubling question of Namoff's damaged noggin.

Midfield: Lots of questions here, but Simms and Szetela in the middle with Quaranta on the right has promise. Will Fred still be around to compete at left mid? Is Gomez gone? How many minutes (if any) can Olsen play? Will the new coach want to keep Pontius as a flank midfielder rather than up top? Will Wallace continue in midfield? On the left or in the middle? Will Nowak want to take Szetela off our hands? Jacobson and a fit-again Barklage give us some depth, but not much. The other pickings are slim.

Forward: There are probably even more questions here than in midfield. Is Emilio gone? Will Moreno be back and how many miles can his old legs take? Is Pontius a forward? Do any of N'Silu, Boyzzz, and Shipalane return? None of those last three would seem to be of starting quality. Moreno might be able to coax another year from his body, but not as a starter. Emilio is more of a burden than an asset (both on the cap and the field) at this point. That leaves us with only Pontius as a potential starter in my book.

So that gives us a starting eleven of...

-------------???------Pontius-----------------
----------------------------------------------
Fred/Wallace/???--------------------Quaranta--
------------Simms------Szetela----------------
----------------------------------------------
Wallace/???-------------------------Namoff----
-----------Jakovic----James/???---------------
----------------------------------------------
----------------Wicks/???---------------------


Then...

That's a lot of question marks, so let's break them down into the five areas that need to be resolved. Of course, we'll keep in mind that the expansion draft, players failing to extend their contracts, and the FO clinging desperately to players past their best (or who never had a best to offer) may add further questions (or propose bad answers to existing ones), but we'll cross those bridges when we come to them. For now...

(1) Who is your starting keeper? The depth looks pretty good. Hamid and Kocic can duke it out for number two. Hell, if Wicks stays cheap or the CBA opens up the cap a bit, Wicks might be in that picture as well, but I won't be thrilled if we go into 2010 with him as the anointed #1. That said, I've talked to (and read) others who are fine with Wicks. The anger issues, statue-pose keeping against close-range efforts, questionable decision making, and the ease with which he is often beaten one-on-one make me less sure.

(2) Is James the partner for Jakovic? We have the FO on record as wanting a more experienced head on the back line, and James is still raw. Given that we'll most likely be parting ways with Janicki and that our other options in central defense are conversion projects that don't seem to be working out (McTavish and Burch), it obvious that we'll need more depth anyway. But given some of our other needs, will we have the coin to pursue a high-quality (and consequently high-priced) option at centerback? Another option might be having a look at Namoff (an experienced head already on the roster) in the middle, as we've got another viable right-back in Vaughn.

(3) Is Wallace a midfielder or defender? One of the glaring weaknesses last year was the inconsistency of the lineup. If we're to be more consistent next year, we'll need to give the guys with enough quality to start a defined role in the starting lineup, rather than shifting them around as needs present themselves. The problem is that Wallace offers good things in the three spots we can play him in. Attacking overlaps and good recovery speed at left back? Yes, but his defensive positioning is suspect. Good runs (with and without the ball) at pace on the attacking left flank? Yes, but the finishing needs to be better. Dynamic energy as a box-to-box central midfielder? Yes, but the positioning and anticipation are once again lacking. So where is his best spot?

(4) What does the future hold for Fred? I'm still convinced that the player we had in 2007 is hiding in there somewhere and that he offers us options both as a left winger or playing in the hole beneath a striker (or strikers). I know that the evidence of the last two years might make this seem like outright crazy-talk, but I still think Fred has something left to give this team and that a little confidence and some respite from the off-field troubles might do the trick in returning him to form. Still, he does carry a considerable (though not as high as some) cap hit, and hasn't posted the numbers to justify it lately.

(5) What's the deal with the forwards? So far, we have no indication that Jaime is going to hang them up. That said, he's not going to be starting 25 games next year either. And what does the FO do with Emilio? I can't see keeping him on DP dollars in any circumstance, and his loss of quickness, both darting behind the line and turning defenders, severely hampers his ability to create chances for himself. Can we afford to rely on an aging poacher who's lost his first step? At the moment, Pontius is our only solid option up top though, like Wallace, his versatility also makes him an option at multiple positions. Assuming we stick with him as a striker, we still need to find him a partner, preferably one that can run off Pontius' aerial work and threaten defenses with his speed.


Conclusions

There is a fair amount to work with here, but there are still significant gaps. Some of those gaps, worryingly, are the same ones that we've been trying to pave over for the last couple of years. So is that (1) the FO's fault in failing to make the right acquisitions, and have they learned their lessons, or (2) the previous coach's fault in not being able to adequately define roles or instruct players in filling them?

Which reminds me, I saw this bit on No Short Corners about what KC needs next year...

If Onalfo were still in charge, I would have said "A coach that will maintain some form of consistency in his lineup selections and on-field role assignments."

Hmmm.

One final bit to consider here before I sign off on the autopsy. Goff is reporting that the Bearded Bombardier is seriously considering calling it a day. You'll notice that I didn't have him pencilled into the prospective starting lineup above. There's a reason for that. While I love Benny, that wasn't enough to rose-tint my vision. His body just can't keep up with his spirit any more. How many times was he making cynical or mistimed challenges or just flat-out trailing the play last year? Can he do spot duty next year? Probably. And I wouldn't be against that at all, but in all my calculations I'm factoring him in as depth at best.

Thoughts?

United Autopsy 2009 | Part IV: The List is Life

Rolling right along with our grisly task, it's now time to figure out who to protect from the expansion draft. "What part does this play in an autopsy?" I hear you ask. Well, the guys you protect are those valuable players at the core of the team you're looking to build around, right? So...


Rules of the Road

Goff outlined the draft rules...

Philadelphia will select 10 players; current clubs must submit their 11-man protected list by Monday afternoon; no club will lose more than one player, which means five teams won't lose anyone; Generation Adidas and home-grown players (for D.C. United, that means Rodney Wallace and Bill Hamid) need not be protected; developmental players claimed must be offered a senior contract; clubs must protect designated players that have no-trade clauses.

But I look at that and still have three questions that I'd need to know the answers to before compiling a definitive list (not that it'll stop me from trying):

1. I'm assuming Wallace, having started or played in nearly every match for us this year, will be graduated from the Generation Adidas program. Last year those graduations took place before the draft, requiring teams to protect their graduated players.
2. Does Emilio have a no-trade clause in his contract? If he does, we have to put him on the list.
3. Are there any rules about the number of international players that can be left exposed? Last year you were only allowed to expose the total number on the roster minus three. So we'd have to protect three international players if that rules holds.
   

Sorting the Hand

So let's break the roster down into three groups: the must-protect, the bubble, and the exposed. I'm going to proceed on the assumption that Goff's info about not needing to protect Hamid (I'm sure this is true) and Wallace (not so sure) is correct, but I'll take a look at what I'd do if we needed to protect Wallace in the conclusion section as well. Also, given that Shipalane and Cronin are on loan, I don't think they factor into this sorting process.

Must-Protect: Jakovic, Namoff, Szetela, Pontius, Quaranta, Simms
Bubble: Wicks, Habarugira, James, Vaughn, Burch, McTavish, Fred, Jacobson, Olsen, Khumalo, Moreno, N'Silu
Exposed: Kocic, John, Janicki, DiRaimondo, Allen, Barklage, Gomez, Emilio

So that's six of the eleven spots accounted for and five spots left that twelve guys could make a case for. Of course, not all such cases are created equal. We've also only protected one international (Jakovic) thus far. Of those on the "exposed" list, I'm sure I might get questions about why Gomez and Emilio are not at least "bubble"-worthy (hint: it's the salaries) and why Barklage doesn't merit consideration (coming off a serious injury, and PU would have to upgrade him from Dev Dollars to senior roster). But let's tackle that bubble, shall we?


Bursting the Bubble

Right off the bat, I'm going to drop Wicks from contention. I'm not convinced he's the long-term solution for us in the net, and Philadelphia's not going to waste a pick on a keeper that won't be ready for opening day. Likewise, I'm going to drop Habarugira and N'Silu because they really didn't do much in their limited minutes to create any real demand for their services. On the flip side, I think James is our #2/#3 center back for next year and realistically part of the core we're building around, so I'm going to promote him to the protected list. Since he's an international as well, that means we still need one more international to be protected (assuming the rules haven't changed).

So that leaves us with eight guys vying for four spots. If we're proceeding under the assumption that we need to have three internationals on the list, that means we can split the pot as well, since one of the two remaining internationals, Fred and Boyzzz, have to be on the list. Tough call, but I'm going to side with Fred. Despite all of the disappointment of the last two years, Fred is still a more talented player than Khumalo and a proven MLS quantity. Yes, he also carries a heavier wage hit, but Fred has trade/resale value that Boyzzz doesn't. Also, I can't see Nowak picking up a 29-year old #3/#4 forward without a proven goal-scoring record who uses up an international spot on his roster, can you?

Now we're down to six guys looking for three spots. Considering all six (Vaughn, Burch, McTavish, Jacobson, Olsen, and Moreno) will probably be squad players and not automatic starters next year, I think you've got to protect quality and leadership, no matter how old or fragile the bodies may be getting. Moreno and Olsen are shielded.

So that leaves a four-way contest for one spot. Dramatic, eh? The tough part about this choice is that Nowak will probably grab one of these guys when we leave them exposed. So who gets the nod? I'm leaning towards McTavish and Jacobson, given that Vaughn would probably see very few minutes as Namoff's backup, and I've never been thrilled about Burch. McTavish's value lies in his versatility, but he's not that great at any one position. Jacobson, on the other hand, has some potentially interesting tools, but never seemed to put it all together last year.

Jacobson by a hair. But I should also note that Vaughn would get the nod if there are any doubts whatsoever about Namoff's noggin. Prior to his injuries, Vaughn had a pretty bright future in this league, and I wouldn't be at all shocked if he's the one PU grab (assuming the FO leaves him exposed).


Conclusions

So my final list is: Jakovic, Namoff, James, Fred, Olsen, Szetela, Simms, Jacobson, Quaranta, Moreno, Pontius. Adding Wallace and Hamid to the picture means we could line up a 4-4-2 of Hamid in net; Wallace, Jakovic, James, and Namoff across the back; Fred and Quaranta on the flanks; Simms and Szetela in the middle; Pontius and Moreno up top; and Olsen and Jacobson on the bench. That still leaves major gaps, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Part V will address needs; let's get back to the protected list...

I do have some reservations about picking Jacobson over Vaughn, particularly given the number of central midfielders already on the list. Of course, if Wallace graduates from Generation Adidas or we have to protect Emilio, Jacobson is the first to get sacrificed. Remember that Emilio got his green card and doesn't count as an international, thus making Fred's spot safe even if Emilio were to be added...assuming that the international condition still exists in the draft rules.

But what if we have to protect both Wallace and Emilio? Again, assuming we have to keep three internationals, I think you're looking at having to leave one of Moreno or Olsen exposed. Ouch. That's a pretty miserable dilemma. Much as it pains me, I think Moreno's production and talent probably count for slightly more than Olsen's effort and desire, though I'd hate to have to make that decision.

Thoughts?

Update: It's official. We DO have to protect at least three internationals, and that worrying language about GenAd graduates is still in there. I can't see Wallace not graduating, so I'm afraid we might need to protect him, meaning Jacobson gets exposed.

United Autopsy 2009 | Part III: In the Middle & At the Top

Carrying on from our look at the goalkeepers and defenders in Part II, it's now time to address the midfield and forwards. Once again, note that I'm including the loanees and injured reserve guys in this roundup.


Midfielders

John DiRaimondo: With the limited roster sizes in MLS, you expect even your developmental players to contribute a little, particularly in the case of a team as busy as United was this season. In his limited minutes the 23-year old midfielder looked quick and lively, but was often dispossessed after holding the ball too long, hit easily intercepted passes, and generally didn't make much of an impression. If he wants to play for Dev Dollars and can beat out the assorted draftees and trialists in camp next spring, maybe he deserves another shot, but I think USL is looming in his future.

Danny Szetela: Conundrums wrapped in enigmas. Which Danny Szetela will show up for 2010? Was his lack of significant playing time Soehn's fault or his own? Will Nowak make us an offer we can't refuse in order to land him for PU? Considering his age (22), the potential suggested by his talent and performances for the youth national teams, and the fact that we don't have a lot of quality depth in central midfield, we need to protect him and/or get a pretty penny for him if Nowak does come knocking.

Ely Allen: From scraping the bottom of the USL2 barrel to scraping the bottom of the PDL, the FO's penchant for lower lower division players is unsettling. Time to let him find his proper level.

Tiyiselani Shipalane: He's quick, provides the kind of attacking width and speed that we generally lack, and can beat people on the dribble. Then again, his defending is limited, we plucked him from USL2 (first year in USL2, another PDL'er prior to 2009), and I don't know how much more developing he's going to at age 24. If he can learn to play flank defense, he might be useful, but he's a project, would need to be fully acquired from Harrisburg, and sucks up an international spot in the bargain. Another Janicki (promising, but ultimately found out) or another Boyzzz (useful, but limited)?

Brandon Barklage: Almost an afterthought in a draft tilted towards the opening rounds, Barklage was starting to make an impression when his season was cut short by injury. I'm assuming he'll get a shot in camp to prove that he should be back on the roster, but who knows. I wouldn't begrudge him the chance, nor do I think there is any danger of losing him to the expansion draft. Wait and see...

Fred: And herein we encounter our first potential high-cap casualty. Fred was fantastic in his first season, but posted disappointing numbers in the last two, scuffing numerous chances in the box and losing possession outside of it. So was that first season a fluke, or did injury and off-field issues conspire to keep him from building upon that early success? I know the knee-jerk reaction is to axe him, but of all our high-earning under-performers, he's currently the cheapest and youngest and probably still has the most left in his tank. I wonder if, given a season where he is only relied upon to attack, his contribution might improve. Tough call, and I know it will come as heresy to some and be seen as furious backpedalling by others, but I'm leaning towards keeping him, though negotiating a lower base salary with production incentives would seem to be prudent on the part of the FO.

Christian Gomez: Gomez posted reasonable numbers given the minutes he played this year, but I can't see us keeping him at his age and current salary. Would I entertain the notion of him sticking around for a drastically reduced salary? Yes. But I'm not sure how much more he has to give at 35. He never really looked like commanding games last year like he did in his first stint with United despite the offense often being geared to go through him. Given that evidence and the specter of Marco looming over the whole scenario, I can't see protecting him, and I don't think we'll see him in black and red next year.

Andrew Jacobson: No, he didn't have a particularly great debut season for United, but he did register some decent minutes, has good size and technique in tight spaces, gave glimpses of a howitzer-shot from distance, is young (24), and doesn't carry a big cap hit. I'd say that all of those points argue for at least a camp invite and probably a roster spot in 2010 as well. But are they enough to merit protecting him from the expansion draft? Probably not, though it would depend how many spots we have available after the core players have been protected.

Ben Olsen: The spirit is willing...but is spirit enough at his current salary? Olsen's sacred cow status as the "heart of the team" notwithstanding, he's 32 and pushing the limits of what his body has left to give. His contributions are mostly emotional at this point as he can't physically keep up with the speed of play or be counted on to be available week-in and week-out. Yet his positive influence on the team is undeniable. At the very least, he needs to become part of the coaching staff next year. At best, he should accept a lower salary as a player/coach, only part of which counts towards the cap, and be expected to provide spot cover and an emotional lift off the bench. Protect him? I don't think you do, but I might consider it if extra spots were available.

Chris Pontius: No questions here about his status for next year. Protect him from the expansion draft and give him a raise. Then move him from the "midfielders" portion of the official roster to the "forwards" portion and start the finishing drills with Coach Jaime. Four goals as a rookie who spent most of his time in midfield is good, but four goals from 56 shots, of which only 23 were on frame, isn't a good enough return. Here's hoping a year's seasoning and a consistent position on the field brings better numbers in 2010, because I don't think there's any doubt that Pontius is part of the "youth core" we need to be building around.

Santino Quaranta: Another no-brainer. Protect the Phoenix and pencil him in on the 2010 roster. The question is, where do you pencil him in? Is he a wide midfielder or a withdrawn forward? While I'm sure I wasn't the only one who noticed the excellent understanding between Tino and Pontius, I like the idea of an energetic speed guy playing off Pontius up top even more, and playing Tino on the flank doesn't keep him from setting the table for Pontius. Here's hoping for a little more patience from him in 2010, because all too often he seemed to be trying to do too much, conceding possession or squandering chances in good positions. At 25, he should be approaching his peak years.

Clyde Simms: Yes, he racks up a lot of minutes and covers a fair bit of ground, but I'm not entirely sold on the 27-year old. Of course, I'd still protect him from the draft, but I'd also be looking for more from Clyde in 2010, particularly in the passing department, where his first instincts are back and sideways and simple. In some ways, that's a positive in that it maintains possession. But it's also predictable and limiting. It wouldn't hurt to add a little bite to his defensive game and rediscover the Clydewinder Missile shot from outside the box as well.


Forwards

Luciano Emilio: Like Fred, Emilio's 2008 and 2009 failed to live up to his breakout 2007. But unlike Fred, he's on big DP dollars, is about to turn 31, and seems to have lost a step. For a poacher-type finisher, losing a step hurts more than at many positions. Critics may argue that Emilio still managed to bang in 10 goals, but Juan Pablo Angel managed 12 on a miserable Red Bulls team that struggled for goals. That's DP production. And Moreno managed 9 in just over half the minutes that Emilio played. Unless a "no-trade" clause means we have to protect him, I think you've got to leave him exposed, not only because I don't think he'll be snapped up at his age and salary, but because I think he's done in DC. Bring on the forwards with energy and speed who look to close down the opposition and are quick enough to get behind the back line. Vive le youthquake!

Thabiso Khumalo: It's a shame about the injury and subsequent infection, because Boyzzz was beginning to have an impact on the team when he went down. That said, I don't think there's any way you put him on the protected list. If the Union want to come in for a 29-year old winger/forward who's spent almost the entirety of his career as a lower-division journeyman, they're welcome to him. I'd still like to see him in camp next year because he's cheap and can be an impact sub, but I'd like even more to have competition for the role of fourth forward and emergency winger (only when chasing a game, as he's precious little use on defense). Perhaps we already have said competition in the form of Shipalane?

Jaime Moreno: If you'd have asked me in the final weeks of the season, I'd have said it was time for Jaime to join the coaching staff and give up the playing ghost. But then I looked back and saw that he posted extremely respectable numbers in limited minutes. Even if his speed is gone, he still possesses the guile and composure in front of goal to be extremely dangerous if surrounded by energetic runners and workers (see Schelotto in Columbus). That said, he'll be 36 by the time a ball is kicked in anger next year, and there were times last year where you got the impression that he was that guy at the local pick-up game. You know, either latin or a Brit, a bit tubby, but a wizard on the ball and not afraid to show it, trying the outrageous even when it doesn't seem necessary. Only don't ask him to play defense...or run for passes...or even move around very much. Protect him? Possibly, depending upon how many slots we've used up. If he comes back next year, I don't think the limited minutes he'll play can justify his current salary, so, like Olsen, a player/coach split deal or salary reduction would seem to be in order.

Ange N'Silu: No way do you protect him. True, his minutes were limited last year, and in the first few outings he looked pretty promising. But as time passed, he looked increasingly disinterested and ineffective. If he gets invited back to camp and comes prepared to put in a strong effort, that's all well and good, but I would expect the FO to be shopping for some competition this off-season.


Conclusions

There are so many questions at the moment and precious little indication of which way the FO is leaning, much less what any prospective new coach might think. Do we stick with Emilio? Fred? Gomez? Moreno? Olsen? Will Szetela still be around come spring? Of the current players, I think you without a doubt protect Szetela, Pontius, Quaranta, and Simms, but beyond that it gets a little murky. I wouldn't even consider protecting Emilio and Gomez (unless the former's contract requires it) and would have to think really hard about Moreno and Olsen, but Fred might get my vote, particularly given that we need to protect a third international if the rules from 2008 hold.

Given the uncertainties, I think I'd pencil in Simms and Szetela in the middle with Jacobson and Olsen for depth, Quaranta on the right, and Pontius up top. We should definitely be scouting for a dynamic, quick striker to partner with Pontius, looking to Boyzzz or Shipalane as a backup for this notional new player, and possibly N'Silu as Pontius' backup.

The left wing is a larger question mark. Is this where Wallace's long-term future lies? Could Fred rediscover his form of 2007? Do we need to go shopping?

Next time out, we'll take a look at putting together a protected list (the core of the 2010 team) for Monday's expansion draft (hopefully we'll have some guidance on the rules by then), before concluding the Autopsy series with a rough draft of my annual What I Want For Christmas list.

See you then.

United Autopsy 2009 | Part II: At the Back

Having assessed the general strengths and weaknesses of the team in Part I, it's time to move on to the player-by-player assessment portion of our program. We'll begin with the goalkeepers and defenders. Note that I'm including the loanees and injured reserve guys in this roundup.


Goalkeepers

Bill Hamid: A big kid who turns 19 this month, Hamid is a no-brainer for next year's roster. He's generation adidas (won't have to be protected from the expansion draft and takes one of our developmental spots), with size and a decent body of work in the youth ranks. The question will be, is he ready to be the #2? And if so, do the roster restrictions and ability to call in pool/loan keepers make carrying three keepers on the final roster a luxury?

Steve Cronin: During his loan spell, the 26-year old proved that he belongs in MLS next year. The problems are: (1) he proved it to everybody, not just DCU, and interest is sure to be high, plus (2) Portland may not want to let him go, preferring instead to enter MLS in 2011 with their netminder already firmly in place. Also, if the Union get the same rules as Seattle had last year, they get first dibs on any USL players (unless the Galaxy still maintain right of first refusal under some byzantine league rule). I'd love to have him on board next year, but it doesn't look likely at this point.

Milos Kocic: The 24-year old arrived via the draft accompanied by some strong hype from the FO and coaching staff, but never really proved himself capable of being a starter, a fact highlighted by the loan signing (and subsequent playing) of Steve Cronin in his place when Wicks went down injured. Kocic would still be eligible (though who knows how willing?) to remain on the developmental roster next year, which is perhaps the only thing working in his favor at the moment. I certainly wouldn't protect him from the expansion draft.

Josh Wicks: Wicks just turned 26, seems to marshall his defense well, and won the three-way contest for the starting keeper spot in 2009. While those points argue in his favor, there have been questions about his temperament. Also, despite some excellent saves (usually from shots taken outside the box), far too often this season he was left standing flat-footed by close-range shots or beaten far to easily one-on-one. Add in the fact that he'll be struggling to get fit for the start of next season after recovering from surgery, and I'm more than hesitant to hand him the #1 jersey, much less a spot on our "protected" list.


Defenders

Avery John: The 34-year old John was one of the half-assed darts that the FO tossed at the problem left back spot. The fact that he managed to hack his way though a handful of games for United says less about his qualities than about his competition for the spot. While I wouldn't complain if he's in the frame competing for a spot in camp next year, I hope to hell we don't go into pre-season with him as a key part of our plans, and I certainly wouldn't protect him from the draft.

David Habarugira: Ah, now here's a mystery! Habarugira is just 21 and did enough in his trial that he landed a senior contract in the summer. We heard that he was a left or central defender, and the coaching staff raved about his "polished" performances. But when he made the field for United, it was in limited minutes at right back, where he looked quick and technically competent going forward, if not exactly "polished" in the defensive and tactical portions of the game. Add in that United signed Lawson Vaughn to fill in when Namoff went down, and you have to wonder about Habarugira's future. For me, I wouldn't mind having a young, athletic guy in the stable who can slot in anywhere across the back line, so I hope to see him in camp.

Julius James: At 25, he's still a project, but a project worth embarking on. In the few moments we got to see them playing together in the middle of a back four, James and Jakovic partnered well. Assuming James can recover from his off-season surgery, I would expect we'd see more of that combination. Of course, the FO seems to want an experienced head at the back, so we'll probably wind up with some run-down Sudamericano stealing major minutes from the athletic and high-upside James, who could do with some seasoning. I'd definitely select him as one of the three internationals the rules say we have to protect (assuming the rules stay the same from last year).

Lawson Vaughn: Vaughn fought his way back into MLS after suffering a rash of injuries. He's still just 25, but has good experience in the league, having featured as a central midfielder, right back, and central defender. His fitness suffered down the stretch for United, but he still supplied some valuable minutes and provides a decent mix of athletic and technical ability. Do I think that's enough to get him on the protected list? Nope. Do I think he might be the type of player Nowak is looking to land in the expansion draft? Quite possibly.

Marc Burch: Is this project over yet? It's no secret that I'm no great fan of Burch. Yes, he is still just 25. Yes, he does have that cannon left peg and can hit a nice cross-field ball. Yes, he's a decent athlete. But I'm still not sold on his ability to do a reasonable impression of an MLS-caliber defender (and the standard isn't that high, is it?). His defense has improved, but not as significantly as you would have expected given two and a half years as a starter. And something about his attitude just makes me want to smack him. Obviously, I wouldn't put him on the protected list, but that's no guarantee the FO won't. That said, if he signs a lowball contract and comes to camp committed, I wouldn't mid having him on board as depth (but depth only, mind you!).

Dejan Jakovic: Keep him. Next! Sorry, I guess I'll elaborate. Jakovic was a fantastic signing, particularly since we probably wouldn't even have landed him if the whole "Roger" thing went through. Given his ability on the ball and excellent anticipation, I can't wait to see him get a solid run with a partner in the middle of a back four. I'm sure I'm not the only one who thought "libero!" while watching him cut out passes and dash into midfield with the ball. While he did make a number of mistakes, mostly involving holding the ball too long or failing to communicate with a rotating cast of keepers, those things come with age, and Jakovic is only 24. Building block? Absolutely. Protect him from the draft and mark him down as Required International #2.

Greg Janicki: Gone. Janicki showed well in limited minutes as a stopgap in 2008, but 2009 demonstrated that the 25-year old is not cut out for MLS. The good news is that the US lower divisions seem to be multiplying like rabbits, so he shouldn't struggle to find a new home.

Devon McTavish: After two years that saw him log 20+ appearances, the versatile 25-year old fell off the map a bit in 2009. Considering he's supposed to be a guy who can fill a lot of holes and that we had plenty of holes cropping up, that doesn't bode well for his MLS future. Like Burch, he's the type of player that I wouldn't mind seeing back in the fold if he doesn't command a big cap hit, but I wouldn't mark him down as a key component of the team either. Of course, young, versatile, and cheap might be exactly the sort of player Nowak is shopping for as well.

Bryan Namoff: He's 30 and coming off a bout with concussion, but he's also United's most consistent defender. There's a worry that Namoff might be starting to decline, but his experience isn't something our assortment of mid-20's defenders can match. I'd have to think that Nowak would bite our arm off if we left him unprotected, but there's also the cap figure and the number of potential right backs waiting in the wings to consider. That said, there's no way you give up an unquestioned starter who's still among the better right backs in the league when your looking to build up the defense, right?

Rodney Wallace: I don't think anybody would argue that the 21-year old Wallace isn't going to be a key part of the roster next year. That said, the big question will be "where?" Wallace was brought in notionally to solve the left-back problem, but he saw most of his minutes in midfield, either on the left or in the middle. In order to complete the next stage of his development, I think it's important that we decide where he fits best, with my preference being as an attacking left back. Given the minutes he played this year, I'd also expect that he'll graduate from generation adidas and that we'll need to protect him from the expansion draft.


Conclusions

At the very least, I put Wallace (assuming he graduates from GenAd), Namoff, James, and Jakovic on the protected list, and pencil them in as your probable starting back four in 2010. An upgrade to James or bringing in another left back to let Wallace play in midfield should be considered, but I wouldn't have many issues with that group.

When it comes to backups, I wouldn't go so far as to protect any of them, but I also wouldn't be shy with the pre-season camp invitations. From the group of Habarugira, Burch, McTavish, and Vaughn, we should be able to take at least two that provide cover on both flanks and in the middle. That would leave the one defensive spot to address in the center, where the FO's stated preference for an experienced head would already seem to have indicated our direction, and I wouldn't have many problems with that. I hold out little hope for John and Janicki.

The goalkeeper situation is an interesting one in that much will depend upon roster rules for next year. Assuming we stay with the 24 man roster, I wonder if we keep three keepers or just proceed with two. You've got to assume that Hamid will take one of the goalkeeper slots, but with Wicks possibly not being ready in time for the start of the season, do you go into the first month with a 19-year old between the pipes? Such a situation argues for bringing in somebody capable of being the #1 (Cronin?) and having him and Wicks battle it out when Wicks returns from injury.

Thoughts?

United Autopsy 2009 | Part I: Strengths & Weaknesses

autopsy (noun)
(1) an examination of a body after death to determine the cause of death or the character and extent of changes produced by disease —called also necropsy
(2) a critical examination, evaluation, or assessment of someone or something past

Thanks, Mirriam-Webster.

And so, having let the frustration and disappointment fester for a couple of weeks, it's finally time to lift the bandages and take a look at the rotting corpse of DC United's 2009 season. We'll break this down into several stages, starting with today's general assessment of the strengths and weaknesses both of this year's team and what lies in store for the 2010 edition. That'll be followed over the next few days with a player-by-player assessment culminating in a list of players to protect from the expansion draft and a rough draft of my What I Want For Christmas wishlist. Ready?


Weaknesses

• A general lack of attacking movement, energy, and speed. It's no coincidence that much of our attacking thrust was dependent upon players who are at (or well past) their "sell by" date.
  
• United's defensive organization was poor, as it has been for the last couple of years. The coach should take his fair share of blame, but it also can't help that defense should begin at the top, and we've already discussed the relative lack of energy there. Tied up in this has to be the questionable decision-making of both the back line and the guys in the net.
• Inability to connect the dots. All too often, United's attacking play consisted of passing and waiting, rather than passing and running, relying on the player in possession to beat his defender or make an incisive pass, which often went unrewarded owing to lack of movement by his teammates or resulted in yet another back or lateral pass. Watching other teams, you could see players having the confidence to play quick, "blind" balls into gaps or space, trusting that a runner would be there. United? Not so much. Of course, we've heard the excuse of not being able to field the same team consistently, which leads us to...
• The busy schedule exposed a lack of depth. This is, naturally, a league-wide problem that could be considered to be out of our FO's hands. That said, the competitive core of players for Houston and the Crew (who faced similar schedules to ours) seemed to be larger.
• Soehn seemed to have more questions than answers. Admittedly, the lack of depth hurt his ability to field a consistent team, but was that lack of depth to blame for the formation changes, the pattern of making substitutions before halftime, and the mysterious choice to ride the veterans hard for much of the year, only to leave them on the bench in the games that we really needed to win?
  

Strengths

• Despite the lack of athleticism (and some might claim effort), we have guile and did score more goals than most of the teams in the league. Were we too dependent upon that guile at times, when a more direct assault might have proved more effective? Probably. This was probably also at the root of some of our attacking "let him do it" complacency.
  
• We have a good core of players in their early and mid-twenties that don't command too much cap space, providing a solid foundation to build upon (provided they don't jump ship for a Euro-payday).
• If we shed some of the overpriced underperformers, we'll have a lot of cap to play with, so the potential is there to address specific weak points in the roster
• A lighter schedule next year will give us a chance to really find our strongest lineup and give it time to play together consistently.

Now, in addition to those strengths and weaknesses (and I have no doubts that you'll fill in the gaps for me admirably in the comments), we have some questions that should be kept in mind as we proceed through the roster. Namely:

• How much roster and salary dead weight will we be able to shed this off-season, and will a new coach with fresh eyes be allowed to do so by the FO?
• Are Olsen and Moreno part of that dead weight or do they still have something more to contribute at their high cap figures?
• Is Wallace a midfielder or a left back?
• Will Pontius be permanently installed up top?
• Can Quaranta learn patience?
• Does Szetela have a future in DC?
• Does Wicks inspire confidence as a first-choice keeper?
• What effect do the long-term injuries to Wicks, James, and Quaranta have upon building team playing chemistry in pre-season?

Tomorrow, we'll start dissecting the defense and goalkeepers. See you then.